WC 2026

Predictions

Poisson expected-goals model trained on 2018–2024 international match data. Each team has attack & defense strengths, plus a home advantage factor.

Tournament Winner

Probability of winning the entire tournament · Top 10 shown

  1. 1 Brazil F 16.2%
  2. 2 France A 13.1%
  3. 3 Argentina F 11.8%
  4. 4 England C 9.4%
  5. 5 Spain H 8.7%
  6. 6 Germany A 7.2%
  7. 7 Netherlands E 5.8%
  8. 8 Portugal H 5.1%
  9. 9 Belgium B 3.8%
  10. 10 Italy G 3.1%

Updated daily. Full 48-team ranking on the way in Phase 4.

Upcoming Match Predictions

Predicted
England
2 1
USA
58.0% 22.0% draw 20.0%
Predicted
Netherlands
1 1
Mexico
42.0% 30.0% draw 28.0%
Predicted
Germany
3 1
Japan
71.0% 17.0% draw 12.0%